Former President Donald Trump is currently leading in the presidential election race. Based on recent polls, Trump has gained an advantage in two states, while the remaining five key states are considered toss-ups. Previously, at the end of August, Vice President Kamala Harris had significant leads in three of these seven states, suggesting they leaned towards her, according to NPR’s analysis of polling averages at that time.
Trump has now taken a lead in the average polls across the seven swing states for the first time since Harris entered the race.
Recent surveys indicate a shift in Trump’s favor, diminishing Harris’s previous leads in pivotal states. While the margin of difference is narrow—only 0.34 percentage points separating Trump and Harris—the consistent trend towards Trump has raised concerns among Democrats.
When President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, and Harris stepped in, Democratic enthusiasm surged, initially boosting her standing. However, since then, Trump’s campaign has adopted a negative strategy aimed at reducing Harris’s support.
The Harris campaign asserts that the race has remained close and expectedly competitive, with little change apart from Harris’s initial entry.
In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, polls tended to overestimate Democratic support. Although Biden secured victory, his leads in swing state polls were larger than the actual results reflected. This raises questions about whether pollsters have corrected their methodologies, making this a genuine toss-up race.
In the 2022 midterms, polls understated Democratic support, though Trump was not a candidate at the time.
With the contests so close, mobilizing key voter groups has become crucial for both sides, especially as early voting has already started in some areas, with more states following soon.
All seven swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—remain toss-ups in NPR’s analysis, considering historical trends and insights from campaign and party strategists.
The “polling map” uses an average from two polling aggregators, FiveThirtyEight and DDHQ/The Hill. States where a candidate leads by one point or more in both aggregators are labeled Lean Democratic or Lean Republican; otherwise, they remain Toss Ups.
Currently, neither candidate has enough states favoring them to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes, with three weeks remaining until the conclusion of voting.
