With just days remaining in the 2024 presidential campaign, polling expert Frank Luntz has indicated that the efficacy of opinion polls in predicting the election outcome has reached its limitations. According to Luntz, current polls are too close to provide a definitive understanding of the voters’ mindset, making it challenging to determine a clear frontrunner between the candidates.
Luntz explained to CNN that undecided voters at this stage are likely not leaning towards either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. He stated, “I’m not focusing much on the polling anymore because it’s been determined. I don’t believe there are any more undecideds. There are still non-committeds and persuadables, but if you’re undecided, you reject both candidates and are unlikely to vote for them.”
Instead of analyzing new polling data, Luntz is now concentrating on potential voter turnout, particularly among young women, a demographic that could significantly benefit Harris if they participate in larger numbers. The vice president has emphasized abortion rights and women’s health as central themes of her campaign.
Luntz is also closely observing Latino voters, whose participation in key swing states like Arizona and Nevada could be decisive. Early voting data suggests a significant increase in Democratic women voting in Pennsylvania, who did not participate in 2020 but are doing so this year. Conversely, in Arizona, Republican men are leading in early voting numbers.
A potential turning point in the race could be attributed to Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, which might have swayed support towards Harris. The event drew controversy when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made derogatory remarks about Puerto Rico, causing a backlash among Latino voters.
Further complicating the accuracy of polling is the historical undercounting of Trump supporters in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Although there was a theory about the reluctance of pro-Trump voters to reveal their preferences, Luntz believes that this is not applicable in 2024. He argues that Trump supporters are currently very vocal and open about their voting intentions.
With previous elections leading pollsters to underestimate Trump’s support, Luntz raises the question of whether there is now an overcompensation, possibly leading to data distortion.
