Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party emerged victorious in Canada’s federal election on Monday, marking a surprising shift in political fortunes. This change was influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war.
After the polls closed, projections indicated that the Liberals would secure more seats in Parliament than the Conservatives, although it was uncertain if they would achieve an outright majority of at least 172 seats. They might need to collaborate with smaller parties to pass legislation.
Initially facing a likely defeat, the Liberals gained momentum when Trump began attacking Canada’s economy and sovereignty, suggesting it should become the 51st U.S. state. These actions angered Canadians and sparked a surge in nationalism, helping the Liberals reshape the election narrative and secure a fourth consecutive term.
In a victory speech in Ottawa, Carney emphasized Canadian unity amid challenges from Washington, declaring the end of a mutually beneficial system between Canada and the U.S. that had lasted since World War II. He cautioned against forgetting the lessons learned from what he termed as American betrayal.
Carney asserted that America’s aspirations for Canada’s resources and land were not idle threats and highlighted the fundamental changes in their world due to U.S. pressure.
Conversely, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, aimed to position the election as a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity waned over rising food and housing costs. However, following Trump’s attacks and Trudeau’s resignation, Carney, a former central banker, took leadership of the Liberal Party.
In a concession speech, Poilievre committed to continuing the fight for Canadians, acknowledging the challenges faced and underscoring the need for perseverance and learning from the election outcome.
Despite a deadly attack at a Vancouver street festival over the weekend, Trump continued to provoke Canada on election day, suggesting it should join the U.S. and misrepresenting the U.S.-Canada financial relationship.
Trump’s provocations led to increased nationalist sentiments among Canadians, with many cancelling U.S. vacations and boycotting American goods. This sentiment was reflected in the record 7.3 million Canadians who voted early.
As Poilievre encouraged voters to seek change, his campaign’s similarities to Trump might have adversely affected his results. Some voters, like Toronto resident Reid Warren, were concerned by Poilievre’s perceived alignment with Trump and his policies.
Historian Robert Bothwell noted that Poilievre’s appeal to a sense of grievance akin to Trump’s strategy ultimately worked against him, inadvertently benefiting the Liberals with Trump’s rhetoric.
Looking ahead, Carney and the Liberals face significant challenges. Without a parliamentary majority, they might depend on smaller parties, such as the Bloc Québécois, a separatist party advocating for Quebec’s independence. Previously, the Liberals relied on the New Democrats, whose leader Jagmeet Singh announced his resignation after the party’s poor performance.
Political scientist Daniel Béland from McGill University remarked that while the election marked a dramatic comeback for the Liberals, a minority Parliament could lead to political uncertainty for them.
Foreign policy dominated the Canadian election, a scenario not seen since 1988, when free trade with the U.S. was a key issue. Canada faces a cost-of-living crisis, and with over 75% of its exports going to the U.S., Trump’s tariff threats could severely impact its economy.
During the campaign, Carney pledged support for Canadian workers affected by the trade war and committed to continuing dental care, offering tax cuts, managing immigration sustainably, and increasing funding for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
