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On this election day, Germans are casting their votes in a pivotal election expected to deliver the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its strongest outcome yet, shaping the future of Europe’s largest democracy amidst significant geopolitical and economic hurdles.
Recent polls suggest that the pro-Russia, anti-immigration AfD, under the leadership of Alice Weidel, could secure support from approximately 20% of German voters. This represents a doubling of their results from the 2021 federal elections. During the campaign, the AfD received endorsements from the Trump administration and Elon Musk, the owner of X and the world’s wealthiest individual.
The anticipated rise of AfD would signal a rightward shift in Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, which has been grappling with elevated energy prices and competition from low-cost Chinese imports. Initial seat projections in the Bundestag are expected to be announced at 6 pm local time as polling stations conclude operations.
The AfD’s campaign, marked by xenophobic overtones, has gained traction following three fatal attacks perpetrated by migrants. On Friday, police apprehended a Syrian refugee in connection with a suspected knife attack at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial.
The other German political parties have unanimously rejected the notion of forming a coalition with the AfD, an approach criticized by U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the recent Munich Security Conference. The emergence of a substantial far-right faction in the Bundestag, however, could complicate coalition-building efforts by Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who is currently poised to succeed Olaf Scholz as chancellor.
Projections indicate that Merz’s conservative party might win the election with roughly 30% of the vote, whereas Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is likely to suffer its worst defeat since 1887, with 15% of the votes.
Forming a coalition could become more challenging if smaller parties, such as the liberal FDP, the far-left Die Linke, and the recently established “leftwing conservative” party by Sahra Wagenknecht, surpass the 5% threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag.
The subsequent German chancellor will inherit not only a stalled economy but also a nation unsettled by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric towards Europe. Trump’s administration has unsettled alliances by threatening to retract security promises from the continent and engaging in discussions with Russia concerning Ukraine’s future.
In Munich on Saturday, Merz addressed supporters, expressing confidence in winning the federal election and ending what he described as the current government’s “nightmare.” He acknowledged existing structural issues but maintained an optimistic outlook, asserting that Germany will revitalize its half-full glass into a full one, demonstrating the potential of its economy.
