One of the government’s senior civil servants is now responsible for investigating issues related to data produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), amid increasing concerns in Westminster about the reliability of the data guiding the UK economy. Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, has tasked his top official, Cat Little, to evaluate the performance of the ONS due to fears that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is lacking crucial data as she formulates her economic plans.
A colleague of the minister stated, “Pat considers this an obvious problem,” and reported that he has discussed it with the permanent secretary, Cat Little, emphasizing the necessity for dependable data. Little and her team have been instructed to present options for potential government action following a series of revelations about inaccuracies in official economic indicators. An independent review is among the possibilities being considered, though no definitive decisions have been made.
Recently, Dame Meg Hillier, the chair of the influential Treasury select committee, addressed a communication to Sir Ian Diamond, the national statistician, pointing out “troubling errors and delays” in certain statistics. An associate of Reeves commented on the frustration of making economic decisions with incorrect data, describing it as a significant issue.
The ONS is currently dealing with problems related to some of its most market-sensitive data, complicating efforts for UK policymakers to manage the economy effectively. Concerns have particularly targeted the Labour Force Survey, which serves as a foundation for jobs data, but the ONS has also identified issues in other areas of its output. The agency has halted the publication of two producer price indices that contribute to GDP calculation and faces criticism from the Institute for Fiscal Studies for “jumbled economic reasoning” regarding its pension wealth revaluation.
This month, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee stressed the importance of “high quality and reliable official data across the full range of economic and labour market statistics” after Governor Andrew Bailey expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of jobs data. The Office for Statistics Regulation, part of the UK Statistics Authority overseeing the national statistical system, plans to publish an interim report in April on a systemic review of economic statistics initiated the previous year.
An official close to McFadden expressed concern over the issues at the ONS, stating, “It’s essential that we have reliable data, and the ONS is vital to that.” In her letter, Hillier expressed worries about the influence of unreliable labour market statistics and potential problems with other economic data. She remarked, “Recent troubling errors and delays in trade data and Producer Price Index data will amplify concerns about the trustworthiness and accuracy of the economic statistics available to policymakers and other users.”
Hillier requested an update on the nature and causes of identified errors in producer prices and the ONS’s response to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ critique of wealth numbers. Additionally, she requested further details about problems in the trade data after the ONS highlighted an error dating back to 2023 on March 13.
On Friday, the ONS issued updates to its trade data after reviewing the problem. Issues identified included errors in data provided by HM Revenue & Customs concerning goods imports and a system error affecting services data processing. However, the revisions to 2023 and 2024 trade numbers did not impact broader GDP data. The Cabinet Office chose not to comment. The ONS stated to the Financial Times that it “remains focused on producing the highest quality statistics for the public good and is committed to the continuous improvement of our methods and approaches.”
