A French trader who placed a $30 million wager on the betting website Polymarket, predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming presidential election, stated that his motivation is solely financial, not political. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the trader, known as “Théo,” clarified that his primary aim is to profit from the bets.
Following concerns regarding large pro-Trump trades on Polymarket, the platform contacted the French trader responsible, although his identity was not revealed. Polymarket described him as someone with extensive trading experience and a background in financial services. The significant bets placed by the trader have noticeably influenced election odds in favor of Trump, prompting concerns about possible market manipulation intended to skew public perception of the election. However, Théo refuted any allegations of a political agenda, insisting he has none.
The trader used his own funds for the bets, which he claimed represented the majority of his liquid assets, although this claim could not be independently verified. Polymarket did not respond for comment. Utilizing multiple accounts on the platform, Théo strategically placed small transactions to avoid affecting the price of his bets, seeking to secure better deals. For instance, during a recent 10-hour period, his account engaged in over 450 bets against Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election, with stakes ranging from $5 to several tens of thousands of dollars.
Polymarket has been highlighted by various media sources as an alternative to traditional polling, with some analysts suggesting prediction markets might offer a more accurate reflection of electoral dynamics because participants are financially committed to their predictions. Despite this, the platform is not accessible to American users and faced a fine by the CFTC in 2022 for offering unauthorized contracts. Separate investigations have suggested that a substantial portion of Polymarket’s trading volume may result from “wash trading,” where traders repeatedly buy and sell shares to artificially inflate market activity.
A Polymarket spokesperson emphasized that the platform prohibits market manipulation, noting that it aims to provide fair analysis while allowing market forces to determine outcomes. Should Théo’s bets on Trump succeed, he stands to more than double his investment, potentially earning around $80 million. Conversely, if Harris prevails, he risks losing either the majority or all of his wager. While new to election betting, Théo decided to bet heavily on Trump, believing mainstream polls underestimate the Republican candidate’s chances.
In the Wall Street Journal’s interview, Théo was described as having a short, neat beard, wearing a gray Nike sweatshirt, and speaking English with a slight accent. Previously residing in the U.S. and having worked in banking, he chose to withhold his full name to keep his vast wealth undisclosed from friends and family. Although confident in Trump’s odds, he acknowledged the unpredictable nature of politics, remarking that surprises could always occur.
