Stories and images of empty ports on the West Coast have raised concerns that Americans may soon be affected by President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff policies. Supply-chain experts and analysts warn that these fears are justified, predicting a challenging summer for consumers, retailers, and the broader economy.
With a 145% tariff on Chinese goods still in place and no trade deal imminent, there has been a noticeable decline in manufacturing orders from China. As a result, freight bookings and sailings to the U.S. have decreased.
Analysts have been cautioning about the repercussions of the tariffs, and the initial impacts are becoming evident in what could develop into a slow-moving crisis. Since freight ships require weeks to travel from China to the U.S., adjusting trade flow isn’t an immediate process. Instead, effects will unfold gradually, according to Apollo Global Management, as the U.S. approaches a critical juncture.
Projected Timeline:
- Early May: Consumers might start noticing impacts in the next two weeks as containership arrivals at U.S. ports decline.
- Mid-May: Reduced transport demands could lead to trucking slowdowns, resulting in empty shelves nationwide.
- Late May, Early June: Apollo anticipates layoffs in trucking and retail industries due to declining sales.
- Mid-June: Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, predicts a summer recession in 2025.
The specific timeline may vary depending on the products imported, with apparel and footwear likely to be affected soon as significant supplies originate from China. Fast fashion and items like children’s toys and back-to-school supplies may become scarce.
Executives from major companies such as Amazon, Home Depot, and Walmart recently urged Trump to reconsider tariffs that could disrupt their operations. However, negotiations between the U.S. and China remain unclear, with conflicting reports on progress.
Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, recently told NBC News that shortages similar to early COVID-19 pandemic conditions might occur, stressing that resolving these issues post-shortage would be too late.
Preorders and Inventories:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns about empty shelves, suggesting major retailers preordered goods. Some companies, especially large retailers, did increase inventory earlier in the year. The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach reported cargo growth in February as retailers attempted to get ahead of anticipated tariffs, making it the busiest February in three years.
Retailers are expected to rely on existing inventories temporarily, according to Jonathan Gold of the National Retail Federation. However, these inventories will eventually deplete, potentially leading to shortages. Imports are projected to decline by at least 20% year over year in the latter half of 2025, as reported by Hackett Associates.
Sea-Intelligence has observed a significant rise in blanked sailings—when an ocean carrier skips a scheduled port—on transpacific trade routes, often without notice. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, noted that the trade war has prompted many shippers to pause or cancel shipments, reducing demand for container vessel capacity and leading carriers to cancel sailings.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.
