A JPMorgan portfolio manager has suggested that the president’s social media posts may hold more significance than actual economic data. For instance, a post announcing a 90-day tariff grace period led to a stock market rebound, while critiques of the central bank’s head resulted in a decline in shares. However, economic data still plays a crucial role in market movements.
Market fluctuations seem to have become a new normal, yet the influence of the president’s social media remains significant, akin to his first term. “We’re one Truth Social post away from being up or down 5% every day,” stated Bill Eigen, a JPMorgan portfolio manager, on CNBC before the release of April’s job report. He noted that data is becoming secondary.
An example includes last month’s stock market decline following President Donald Trump’s social media post criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Conversely, markets surged when he announced a tariff grace period on social media, which echoed previous market reactions to his tariff-related posts. Bloomberg has noted that some investors now wait 72 hours after such posts before making decisions, to assess if there are any retractions.
In February, a study by JPMorgan indicated that while Trump now sends fewer market-moving posts compared to his previous term, 10% of them still influence market movements, with recent activity increasing. Neither the White House nor JPMorgan provided additional comments.
Even before his inauguration, Trump influenced currency markets through his social media activities. For instance, in November, after his re-election, a post about upcoming tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to a weakening of their currencies against the dollar the next day.
The volatility associated with Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies has persisted since his election. While some regard this as potentially beneficial, Eigen, who leads the Absolute Return and Opportunistic Fixed Income team at JPMorgan Asset Management, anticipated further volatility. He remarked that the correct path in policy is often the most difficult, especially in achieving trade deals, suggesting ongoing market turbulence.
Despite these influences, economic data still certainly affects markets. For example, a positive jobs report spurred an increase in stock markets, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all seeing gains. Conversely, a recent drop in the gross domestic product led to market declines. This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.
