As Election Day approaches, voters are now facing the urgency to finalize their decisions, with only hours remaining. According to polling analyst Frank Luntz, those who remain decisively undecided at this late stage are unlikely to cast their votes for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and might even opt to abstain from voting altogether. However, Luntz points out that there are still voters who are uncommitted and open to persuasion, potentially playing a pivotal role in the election’s outcome. Recent data indicate that such voters are reluctantly choosing between two candidates they do not particularly favor.
The latest poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, released on Sunday, highlights close contests in seven key battleground states. Among voters who have reached their decision in recent days, Harris leads Trump 58% to 42%. Nevertheless, regional differences could significantly influence the Electoral College map, reshaping expectations over which states may deliver decisive votes. In the Sun Belt region, late-deciding voters favor Harris by 66% to 34%, according to the Times. Conversely, in the North, Trump commands a lead of 60% to 40% among these voters.
These figures suggest potential vulnerabilities in the Democrats’ "blue wall" strategy, which relies on securing wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nonetheless, the data also posit that Harris may have alternative pathways to victory through parts of the South and West. In the Times poll, Harris marginally leads Trump in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina while holding a slight lead in Georgia. Meanwhile, Trump maintains a narrow lead in Arizona and Michigan, with the candidates tied in Pennsylvania. Notably, all these results fall within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, marking a significant shift from September. This development surprised election analysts, suggesting that a traditionally Republican state might unexpectedly be in play, while Harris could be garnering increased support in other Midwestern areas. Previously, in 2020, the same poll tempered Democratic expectations for a landslide win in the Midwest, though President Joe Biden narrowly surpassed Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Moreover, prediction markets have fluctuated considerably in the past week, ranging from giving Trump a significant advantage to presenting a close race or even a slight lead for Harris. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, recently informed Fortune that Trump is experiencing an unprecedented decline in his campaign’s final days, potentially allowing Harris to claim victory. This shift was reportedly catalyzed by a backlash late last month when, during a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as "a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean."
In related news, the Fortune Global Forum is scheduled for November 11 and 12 in New York City, bringing together prominent business leaders and influential figures for thought-provoking discussions and sessions.
