In recent years, a growing reluctance to have children is presenting broader challenges to society, as the decision to parent remains a personal one for individuals. The crude birth rate in the United States has more than halved since the 1960s, with approximately 24 babies born per 1,000 people in the 1960s compared to only 11 in 2022, according to the St. Louis Fed.
This significant decline, coupled with an increasingly aging population, raises serious concerns among economists about the future functioning of economies with a reduced workforce. Melinda Mills, a professor at Oxford University’s Nuffield Department of Population Health, notes that sustained low fertility rates and longer life expectancies result in aging populations. This demographic shift poses challenges for labor markets, healthcare systems, housing, infrastructure, and pension plans.
James Pomeroy, HSBC’s global economist, has previously suggested to Business Insider that the GDP of an aging population could decrease by as much as 4%. Despite initial expectations of a post-COVID “baby bump,” recent data from 2022 and 2023 reflect a return to pre-pandemic birth trends, with many couples opting for a dual-income-no-kids (DINK) lifestyle. The CDC reported record-low U.S. fertility rates, with about 55 births per 1,000 females ages 15 to 44 in 2023.
Pomeroy suggests that a low-fertility scenario could see a declining traditional working-age population within two decades. Meanwhile, Mills highlights immediate impacts, such as healthcare staffing challenges previously mitigated by migrant workers, citing the U.K. as an example where migrants constituted around 33% of the healthcare workforce in 2022. This situation has led to political tensions and choices regarding maintaining labor forces and pension systems.
Pomeroy warns that the decrease in population inevitably impacts daily life, making it harder to find workforce availability in various service sectors. The reasons for declining birth rates among millennials and Gen Z include high childcare costs, housing market challenges, expensive groceries, career disruptions, and environmental concerns. A July 2024 Pew Research study with over 3,000 respondents indicated that 38% of participants cited environmental worries as a reason not to have children, while many pointed to financial constraints.
In addition, gender equality and career advancement for women significantly contribute to these trends, with many women achieving higher education and participating actively in the workforce. Mills points out that the increasing age at first birth, which is now above 30 for women and even higher for men in many countries, limits fertility further.
Some couples, like Heather Maclean and her husband Scott Kyrish, have found that not having children allows them greater career flexibility and opportunities, like pursuing personal projects without the financial pressures of child-rearing. Maclean has expressed that the absence of children enabled her to take risks in her career, such as writing a book.
The content was initially published on November 19, 2024, by Fortune.com.
