With the 2024 presidential election nearing its conclusion, a notable poll revealed a surprising shift in voter preference in a Midwestern state. The recent Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. and commissioned by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, indicated that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump among likely voters, with a margin of 47% to 44%. This marks a significant change from September, when Trump held a 4-point advantage over Harris. Earlier, in June, Trump had a substantial 18-point lead over Joe Biden, who was then a candidate.
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., expressed surprise at the unexpected turn of events, acknowledging Harris’s newfound leading position. The shift is attributed to increased support from voters over 65 and independent voters, particularly women, gravitating towards Harris. Although traditionally not considered a swing state in 2024, Iowa’s political landscape has shifted more Republican since supporting Democrat Barack Obama in 2008.
Political analysts have taken note of Iowa’s restrictive abortion law, limiting the procedure after about six weeks with few exceptions, a critical issue Harris has highlighted in her campaign. Prediction markets have also shown increased favorability towards Harris recently, with experts noting Trump’s declining lead.
Selzer’s Iowa Poll is highly regarded and may influence outcomes in other Midwestern states that are crucial in the election. Her final survey in 2020 accurately predicted Trump’s robust performance in Iowa, even as other polls suggested a closer race, prompting Biden to campaign there. Ultimately, Trump secured Iowa by an 8-point margin, and Selzer’s findings hinted that Biden might struggle in other regional states, despite previous projections.
Currently, states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are in tight races, with some data showing Trump in the lead. However, Iowa’s unexpected results may suggest greater Midwest support for Harris than previously anticipated. The Iowa survey, though respected for its accuracy, has been met with some skepticism. Polling expert Nate Silver expressed doubt about its results, despite considering Selzer one of the top pollsters, emphasizing her exceptional reputation in a challenging polling environment.
