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Reform UK’s Recent Electoral Gains
On Friday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage asserted that his party now represents the main opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s government, following a narrow victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, defeating Labour by a margin of six votes.
The rightwing populist party demonstrated considerable gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England, marking a significant test of public opinion since the previous year’s general election. Results were scheduled for announcement throughout Friday.
Reform UK also achieved its first mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire, with former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns placing her former party in a distant second.
Sarah Pochin secured the Runcorn & Helsby seat after a recount, overturning a substantial Labour majority to become Reform’s fifth parliamentary member, marking notable progress for Farage’s party.
The by-election, held in a traditional Labour stronghold in England’s north-west, was deemed a significant event amid numerous mayoral races and council elections occurring on Thursday.
In addition to Reform, the Liberal Democrats were anticipated to achieve substantial gains, indicating that Labour and the Conservatives might be losing their longstanding political dominance.
Farage noted a significant shift of Labour support towards Reform but acknowledged that the party will now face increased scrutiny, particularly as it assumes responsibility for local service management in various areas. He claimed that Reform has become the primary opposition to the Labour government.
Labour’s defeat in Runcorn is likely to be concerning, as the party has experienced a decline in popularity since its landslide victory last July.
The Runcorn seat was previously held by Labour MP Mike Amesbury, whose conviction for assault prompted the by-election.
Reform candidate Pochin campaigned with a strong anti-immigration stance, addressing local issues surrounding an asylum hotel and government welfare cuts. Labour, on the other hand, promoted additional NHS funding and employment reform packages, while attempting to consolidate votes from former Green and Liberal Democrat supporters against Reform.
Early mayoral race results suggested a significant swing toward Reform. Jenkyns attained victory with 42 percent of the vote, and Reform nearly unseated Labour in North Tyneside and Doncaster.
In North Tyneside, Karen Clark narrowly led with 30.2 percent over Reform’s 29.4 percent. In Doncaster, Labour’s Ros Jones won with 23,805 votes, slightly ahead of Reform’s Alexander Jones at 23,107.
Labour party chair Ellie Reeves acknowledged the challenges faced in these elections and emphasized the party’s impatience for change alongside the public.
Reform UK currently leads national opinion polls with an average of 26 percent, compared to Labour’s 24 percent and the Conservatives’ 21 percent, according to the Financial Times’ poll of polls.
Labour’s strategists are concerned that Reform could gain significant ground in Labour’s former strongholds in northern England and the Midlands in the next general election, slated by 2029.
In a sign of low expectations from Labour, Starmer did not visit the constituency ahead of polling day.
Additional results expected later on Friday are anticipated to emphasize the difficult position facing Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, with predictions of substantial party losses in council seats.
The Conservative party is facing threats from Reform in northern and eastern regions, while the centre-left Liberal Democrats aim for gains in southern councils. Results from these contests are expected on Friday afternoon.
These council elections were last contested when former Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson enjoyed heightened popularity during the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
Conservative shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake stated that losing half their seats would mark a challenging night for the party.
