The US Election Countdown newsletter has been made available without charge. It covers significant stories related to money and politics in the race for the White House.
On an upcoming Tuesday, Americans will participate in what is likely to be one of the most impactful presidential elections of their lifetime. Despite the distinct differences between the candidates, they both face the challenge of revitalizing national purpose and energy in a country considered to be at the zenith of its competitive capabilities.
The United States is currently experiencing growth in the aftermath of the pandemic; however, it faces substantial economic, political, and social challenges. The persistence of partisan politics is expected to continue beyond this election, potentially worsening. There are also concerns about slowing productivity, an ageing population, divisions amplified by social media, and mounting competition from China and other emerging markets forming new alliances.
While the US maintains a dynamic business environment, esteemed universities, abundant natural resources, and a robust industrial base, it continues to grapple with inefficiencies in both the public and private sectors, a self-interested elite, an underprepared workforce for the modern era, and a weakened sense of national unity. A significant challenge is the absence of a shared national purpose or a clear understanding of the common good.
The possibility of reversing these trends exists, as outlined in a report by the Rand Corporation titled “The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism.” This report reviews historical patterns to explore whether great powers in crisis can recover their sense of purpose.
The findings indicate that once decline starts, reversing it is rare, though not impossible. Some nations have successfully anticipated a potential decline through various indicators, such as global GDP share, trade, military power, international leadership, and cultural influence, and have developed new, sustainable systems for growth and shared prosperity.
Examples include Britain in the 1840s and the US post-1890s. During these times, both nations tackled multiple economic, political, and social issues, leading comprehensive reforms that restored national vigor. Britain, during the Victorian era, addressed the negative impacts of industrialization, inequality, and political corruption. Similarly, the US post-Gilded Age faced many challenges.
These countries managed to implement significant reforms that advanced labor rights, education access, and voter enfranchisement, culminating in decades of inclusive growth and renewed national purpose.
Key to their success was diagnosing problems before they became unmanageable. According to the Rand report, historical examples such as the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union failed because they couldn’t recognize their issues until it was too late. The US today may benefit from a widespread acknowledgment of its challenges across political and social spectra.
Proper diagnosis is necessary but not sufficient to prevent decline. A problem-solving mindset and wide-ranging responses are essential, as demonstrated by Victorian Britain and Progressive-era America. Individuals across various sectors engaged in national discussions about reforms. Despite current political polarization, similar debates are prevalent within the United States, focusing on necessary changes.
State capacity and a functional government are imperative for any reform initiatives. Yet, perhaps the most crucial component of national renewal lies in the commitment of both elites and ordinary citizens. Historical narratives highlighted in the Rand report link national resurgence to public-spirited elite engagement, such as the aristocrats of 19th-century Britain and early 20th-century American Progressives who understood that socio-political instability threatened their interests.
The level of engagement and commitment in the United States today remains uncertain. Although groups like the Patriotic Millionaires and the Never-Trump segment of the Republican party represent progress, many privileged individuals prioritize personal gain over the public interest. Public servants making financial sacrifices are undervalued, with cynicism about transformative potential persisting.
Despite facing significant challenges, the US retains substantial strengths, such as advancements in science and technology, entrepreneurial spirit, a strong consumer base, and a renowned can-do attitude. However, these attributes are not guarantees for continued success. The next president is urged to address these broken systems candidly and work towards uniting Americans to address them.
