In light of skepticism regarding the reliability of opinion polls and betting markets in predicting presidential election outcomes, alternative data may provide new insights. A significant number of Americans have already participated in early voting, with both major political parties actively promoting this option. Notably, Republicans have set new early voting records in certain states after previously downplaying the practice.
While the preferred candidates of early voters remain undisclosed, analysis of the demographics of these voters offers potential indicators of election trends. An analysis by NBC News highlights a notable increase in early voting by new Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona.
In Pennsylvania, a state pivotal to Kamala Harris’s presidential aspirations, 33,874 female Democrats who had not participated in the 2020 election registered their votes early between October 1 and 28. In comparison, 21,292 new male Democrats also cast early ballots during the same period. These figures surpass the early votes from Republicans who did not vote in 2020, with women at 16,334 and men at 16,679.
It’s essential to note that party affiliation does not necessarily dictate voting behavior; some Democrats may not support Harris, and some Republicans may not back Donald Trump. Additionally, the number of new voters without party affiliation is approximately 8,000 for both genders, representing a potentially significant voting bloc.
The overall number of new early voters in Pennsylvania already exceeds 100,000, surpassing Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in the state, where he defeated Trump by 80,555 votes. Pop icon Taylor Swift, originally from Pennsylvania, might have influenced the increase in female voter turnout. Her endorsement of Harris in September reportedly spurred a nationwide surge in voter registration.
Conversely, in Arizona, Republican men have been the predominant demographic among new early voters. Between October 15 and 28, they cast 19,901 ballots, while 16,515 Republican women participated in early voting. Democratic men and women contributed 10,487 and 13,533 ballots, respectively. The number of new early voters without party affiliation in Arizona was higher than in Pennsylvania, which adds to the uncertainty regarding the state’s election outcome. Individuals in this group, both male and female, submitted 15,899 and 14,536 ballots, respectively.
Similar to Pennsylvania, new early voter totals in Arizona, approaching 91,000, far exceed Biden’s narrow 2020 victory margin of 10,457 votes. A critical aspect of Trump’s campaign strategy is to engage low-propensity voters, those who typically do not vote. This approach has caused concern among some Republican operatives due to a perceived lack of canvassing efforts. In contrast, the Harris campaign has adopted a more traditional strategy, with numerous offices in battleground states and a substantial number of paid staff and volunteers.
Polls show a close race in both states. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, each with 48%, while Trump has a slight lead in Arizona, polling at 48.8% compared to Harris’s 46.7%.
