Sir Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen are set to conclude plans on Thursday for a new UK-EU defence treaty and a fishing rights agreement, setting the stage for discussions on a wider economic arrangement. The British Prime Minister and European Commission President are anticipated to announce both a defence and security alliance and an extension of the present fishing arrangements during a summit on May 19.
Officials familiar with the negotiations indicated that the defence agreement would foster trust and facilitate delicate discussions on areas such as a youth mobility scheme, energy collaboration, and the reduction of trade barriers for food and agricultural products. British representatives noted that Starmer is expected to conduct a one-hour meeting with von der Leyen in London on Thursday, coinciding with an international energy security summit. “They have a strong personal relationship,” commented one official.
Both sides regard a UK-EU defence pact as significant, especially in the context of Russian aggression in Ukraine. The agreement is expected to be paired with a document outlining cooperation in other areas on May 19. A European Union diplomat, briefed on summit preparations, mentioned, “The plan is to publish a document setting out a common way forward.” A British official added that May 19 would mark the starting point.
The complicated matter of fishing rights is anticipated to be addressed by agreeing to maintain current fishing quotas in UK waters for at least two more years, providing certainty for EU vessels, as favored by France and other coastal states. In exchange, UK defence companies would become eligible to access up to €150 billion in EU-backed loans to support weapons acquisitions under the bloc’s Security Action For Europe (SAFE) initiative.
While Brussels maintains legally nonbinding security agreements with countries such as Norway, Albania, South Korea, and Japan, the UK and EU negotiators are discussing a potentially more comprehensive bilateral partnership. The SAFE program will enable EU members to issue bonds supported by the EU budget, reducing costs outside Brussels-mandated fiscal limits. This scheme is intended to finance weapon purchases from manufacturers within EU member states and countries that hold a security agreement with the EU.
A senior EU diplomat emphasized the necessity of including the UK in European defence policy, equating it with the importance of Norway’s involvement in SAFE. Pressure from multiple member states has been placed on France to consent to the deal, although Paris has insisted on maintaining access to UK fish stocks at current levels beyond June 2026, the expiry of a Brexit-era arrangement. Some member states continue to push for an extension of at least five years on fishing access.
The two parties are expected to enhance cooperation on energy issues, such as optimizing electricity trade between the UK and EU, likely over an extended period due to the infrastructure requirements involved with projects like electricity interconnectors. The summit is also set to outline a roadmap for future discussions about reconnecting the carbon emissions trading systems of both sides.
An EU diplomat noted a positive atmosphere, stating there is hope that an agreement “landing zone” could be reached by May 19, with evidence of willingness from both sides. Another senior UK official estimated a 75% likelihood of achieving a deal. However, “intense negotiations” persist on several other deal components, and gaps remain in discussions regarding youth mobility and artists’ touring rights in the EU, which are significant UK interests.
EU officials indicated that the UK has agreed to the principle of “dynamic alignment,” where the UK would automatically adopt EU rules and standards, with the European Court of Justice remaining the ultimate authority on EU law issues. The unresolved issues are how disputes will be resolved and how the ECJ’s jurisdiction will function in practice. The immediate concern surrounds how the UK will implement dynamic alignment and the mechanisms for incorporating EU rules into UK legislation.
