Sure, here’s the article rewritten in the third person:
Analyzing historical patterns may not always predict future outcomes, yet it can offer insights into potential trends. This idea became relevant following a recent occurrence in the stock market where the S&P 500 experienced an event for only the fourth time in 75 years. This piece examines historical patterns to consider what might follow for stocks.
100-Day Milestones
Since Franklin D. Roosevelt assumed the presidency in 1933, administrations have been evaluated based on their achievements in the first 100 days. Roosevelt set a significant benchmark by collaborating with Congress to pass 15 major legislative items, including agricultural and banking reforms. Three decades later, John F. Kennedy initiated the Peace Corps within his initial 100 days. Ronald Reagan saw the release of 52 hostages from Iran at the start of his presidency, proposed an economic recovery plan, and survived an assassination attempt.
Recently, Time magazine published an article about Donald Trump’s second term titled "The Most Significant First 100 Days Since FDR." The piece highlighted Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), his aspirations regarding Canada and Greenland, and an immigration crackdown.
For investors, the notable development during Trump’s return to the presidency has been the impact of steep tariffs, causing the S&P 500 to decline approximately 7% within his first 100 days. This drop is unusual, as the index has only declined by 5% or more in the early days of a presidential term three times since 1950.
Historical Precedents
In examining these historical trends, one must consider the S&P 500’s formality in 1957. Before then, the index contained only 90 companies.
During Dwight D. Eisenhower’s first 100 days in 1953, the S&P 500’s predecessor declined nearly 6% before sliding into a correction and finishing the year down by over 5%.
Under Richard Nixon in 1973, the index plummeted by almost 10% amid the emerging Watergate scandal, briefly entering bear market territory and ending the year roughly 18% lower.
Similarly, George W. Bush’s first term in 2001, amid the post-dot-com bubble, saw a 7% decline in the S&P 500 during the initial 100 days, closing the year down over 14%.
Declines during the first 100 days of a presidential term remain rare, with only minor decreases noted during Jimmy Carter’s tenure in 1977 and George W. Bush’s second term in 2005.
Current Analysis
Traditionally, when the S&P 500 falls by at least 5% during a new presidential term’s first 100 days, it ends the year negatively. However, with limited historical examples, drawing firm conclusions remains statistically challenging.
Current circumstances may differ. For example, tariffs could be postponed or permanently removed by the White House or federal courts, altering potential outcomes.
Nevertheless, history consistently shows the S&P 500 eventually rebounds. Looking back 10 to 20 years later, the first half of 2025 might appear an advantageous period for stock investments.
Keith Speights does not hold shares in any mentioned companies. The Motley Fool has no presence in these stocks but maintains a disclosure policy.
