On November 1, 2024, it was reported that polling funded by Republican groups is being viewed with skepticism, as the presidential race is expected to be extremely close. In Arizona, for example, significant spending on political media ads has made it a focal point in the current political landscape. However, polls such as those released by Data Orbital, which suggest Donald Trump has an eight-point lead in Arizona, are under scrutiny due to conflicting results found in other surveys conducted over the past year that indicate a much tighter race. Similarly, in the U.S. Senate race, Data Orbital claims Kari Lake is leading Ruben Gallego, contrary to other survey findings.
Many believe these questionable poll results are part of a strategy by the GOP to create a false impression of their lead, potentially setting the stage for future claims of election irregularities should the final results diverge from these polls. Mike Noble, an Arizona-based pollster, has expressed frustration over what he considers deliberate data manipulation by the Republicans. His recent findings showed a considerably different picture, with only a 1 percent lead for Trump over Biden and a four-point advantage for Gallego over Lake.
Despite these challenges, Democratic organizations and unions are engaging in significant efforts to mobilize voters in Arizona and Nevada. These efforts are seen as crucial for overcoming any lead suggested by GOP-funded polls. In recent elections, similar ground games have successfully turned out voters, leading to narrow Democratic victories.
The inflated polling numbers from Data Orbital and other right-leaning groups are considered campaign maneuvers rather than reliable data indicators. While partisan polls currently show Trump with a 3 percent lead in Arizona, historical patterns suggest these figures could be misleading. On the ground, unions and allied groups are conducting comprehensive voter outreach campaigns in an effort that might influence the final outcomes in Arizona and Nevada.
The final Senate races in both states, as well as the balance of power in Congress, could shift depending on the effectiveness of these get-out-the-vote operations. With the presence of an abortion access measure on the ballot, voter turnout is anticipated to lean heavily toward progressives, potentially impacting the control of legislative chambers in Arizona. The close nature of the presidential race underscores the ongoing influence of Trump’s rhetoric among certain voter segments, but there remains a pathway for Vice President Kamala Harris to secure victories in these critical states through well-coordinated voter mobilization strategies.
