The exit polls from Poland’s election have brought relief to the European Union (EU), as the centrist opposition Civic Coalition emerges as a strong contender. Led by former European Council chief Donald Tusk, the party aims to bring Poland back into the EU fold after years of estrangement and antagonism. The EU had been concerned about Poland’s election, as the country has previously been viewed as a flawed democracy and EU-hostile. Brussels had withheld funds from Poland due to concerns about the government’s actions, such as limiting women’s rights and undermining the independence of the judiciary and press freedom. The expected outcome of the election is a positive development for the EU, as it bucks the trend of the apparent renaissance of Eurosceptic hard-right parties across the bloc.
The Civic Coalition’s victory promises to lead Poland back into the European mainstream, although it won’t be an easy task. The outgoing hard-line conservative Law and Justice party is expected to retain a significant number of parliamentary seats, which will limit the new government’s room for manoeuvre. Despite this, European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas is optimistic that tensions between the EU and Poland will dissipate, and he sees Warsaw as a core member of the European family. In addition to EU concerns, Brussels is eager to thaw frosty relations with Poland due to Russia’s presence in the region. The disunity amongst Ukraine’s international backers is seen as playing to Moscow’s advantage, making it important for the EU to have a unified approach. However, Poland’s tough stance against Russia is unlikely to waver, regardless of which party is in power. NATO is also relieved by the election result, as Poland has been an active and dedicated member of the military alliance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, which borders Poland, is seen as vital, and the US, in particular, appreciates Poland’s significant defense spending.
Poland’s worries about the war in Ukraine potentially spilling over its borders have prompted plans to invest in becoming Europe’s strongest army by 2026. The country spends 3% of its GDP on defense, fulfilling NATO’s expectations. Even before Donald Trump’s presidency, the US had urged its European allies to increase their defense spending, and Poland’s dedication to this cause has pleased Washington. With its proactive stance against Russia and commitment to supporting Ukraine, Poland is seen as a reliable ally in the long term, regardless of the party in power. Overall, the election result brings hope for improved relations between Poland and the EU, as well as a revitalization of Poland’s role in the European mainstream and NATO.
