In some locations, the counting of ballots can take more time than in others. This variability can impact presidential elections, as a candidate’s initial lead in a state may shift as more localities report their results in the hours or days following the close of polls on Election Day.
In the 2020 presidential election, a phenomenon known as the “red mirage” or “blue shift” was observed. This occurrence saw several states that initially appeared to favor then-Republican President Donald Trump shift towards the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, as more votes were counted. States such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania experienced this shift.
Trump and his allies attributed these changes to unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud involving mail-in ballots. However, the changes were due to factors such as the distribution of political preferences among voters and the preferred methods of casting ballots, along with state laws that affect the speed of vote counting.
There are two primary trends explaining the variance in election result reporting speeds. Generally, urban, densely populated communities tend to lean Democratic, whereas smaller, rural communities often lean Republican. Additionally, Republicans generally prefer in-person voting, while Democrats have contributed to the rise in mail voting since the 2020 election. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll suggests this trend may continue into the 2024 general election.
An analysis of the 2020 election by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab highlighted that smaller, rural counties, which largely supported Trump, reported results faster than larger counties with more precincts and voters. The larger counties took more time due to the volume of mail-in ballots received. Some states have laws allowing absentee ballots received after Election Day to be counted, which can also slow the process. Furthermore, whether a state’s laws permit election officials to process mail-in ballots before Election Day affects result reporting times.
The process called “pre-canvassing” encompasses the steps needed to prepare mail-in ballots for scanning, such as verifying voters’ signatures, opening envelopes, and flattening the ballots. The timeline for starting this process varies by state. The MIT analysis found that states allowing pre-canvassing before Election Day reported results faster in 2020.
For the upcoming presidential election, states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow processing before Election Day, potentially leading to delays in result reporting. Arizona permits early processing, but officials anticipate delays due to many voters likely dropping off mail ballots on Election Day. Despite this, some experts believe that election officials’ experience with mail-in ballots since 2020 and a return to in-person voting by some voters could expedite the counting process. However, if the presidential race is close, especially in certain states, patience may be required to see the final outcome of the 2024 electoral map.
