In a 2018 photograph, Minnesota soybean farmer Michael Petefish is seen holding soybeans from his farm in southern Minnesota. At that time, American farmers, similar to the present situation, expressed concerns about a possible escalation in a trade war following the imposition of tariffs on imports during the initial Trump administration.
U.S. row crop farmers produce significant amounts of food and rely heavily on selling a large portion overseas, thriving best under free trade policies. They are also significant consumers, investing billions in heavy equipment, seed, and fertilizer. This dual dependency makes them particularly susceptible to the impact of tariffs.
Vance Ehmke, a farmer from western Kansas, explained from his family homestead, established in 1885, that the tariffs are detrimental. He highlighted that the tariffs provoke price increases for necessary purchases while decreasing prices for their sales, metaphorically describing the situation as being “economically drawn and quartered.”
Numerous farmers indicated they were already financially strained before the tariffs’ implementation. According to Successful Farming magazine, tractor prices have surged by 50% over five years, and fertilizer costs have more than doubled, while commodity prices remain low. Ehmke mentioned that although wheat prices began to rise earlier this year, they fell sharply when Trump introduced the prospect of broad tariffs, resulting in a significant economic setback for him.
Large-scale American farmers rely on exports for their livelihood, with approximately half of Ehmke’s wheat being sold overseas. Ehmke and market analysts speculate that countries affected by U.S. export tariffs may retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. food exports, potentially reducing demand and causing further price declines. This concern is echoed by major conservative farm trade groups.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall emphasized that over 20% of farm income is derived from exports, asserting that tariffs will increase costs for essential supplies and subject American-grown products to retaliatory tariffs, driving up their global prices. Duvall warned that this could not only threaten farmers’ short-term competitiveness but also result in long-term market share losses.
Maintaining market share is crucial as building trading relationships can take decades. The U.S. has been considered a reliable food supplier; farmers are reluctant to risk losing this reputation. Kenneth Hartman, Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association, expresses concern that Mexico, a major export partner, might soon start seeking corn from other countries.
Hartman, who manages 4,000 acres of corn and soybeans south of St. Louis, remains hopeful that President Trump will utilize tariffs to open more overseas markets for U.S. food products. Despite concerns, Hartman suggests potential opportunities in Asia, specifically in Vietnam and the Philippines.
However, new tariffs by Trump impose a 46% tax on goods from Vietnam and a 17% levy on products from the Philippines, complicating efforts for U.S. farmers to enter those markets.
In response to a previous trade war with China that impacted U.S. agricultural exports, Trump’s administration provided $28 billion in aid to farmers. Many farmers anticipate similar support if needed.
Conversely, Vance Ehmke remains skeptical about receiving a bailout, considering the budget cuts in Washington, jokingly suggesting that the only positive aspect might be the reduction in income tax obligations.
