The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that temperatures will be above average this winter in most of the northern United States, including the Northeast and much of the West Coast. However, a slightly warmer winter does not necessarily mean less snow. The forecast is influenced by a strong El Niño, which is expected to raise temperatures and precipitation levels across the country, particularly in the southern United States. The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA warns that while warmer temperatures may prevail in the Northeast, there could be an increase in nor’easters hitting major East Coast cities.
El Niño is also likely to bring wetter conditions to California, following a year of heavy rain, landslides, and blizzard conditions. However, meteorologists caution that forecasts are educated probabilities and not guarantees. Even if there is a 20 percent chance of temperatures being above average, record-breaking cold outbreaks or blockbuster snowstorms can still occur. Last year’s forecast for a warmer and drier winter in California was proven wrong when the region experienced cooler temperatures and heavy precipitation from atmospheric rivers. The influence of El Niño on the positioning of the jet stream will play a major role in determining the weather patterns across the United States.
Forecasters also highlight other factors that can impact the weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. These factors can cause sudden Arctic outbreaks and increase precipitation in specific regions. Additionally, meteorologists consider the influence of climate change when making their forecasts. Winter is one of the fastest warming seasons in many parts of the country. While the seasonal forecast provides valuable insights, it is important to approach it with a grain of road salt and be prepared for unpredictable weather events.
