Tropical Storms’ Hidden Impact

Tropical storms result in significantly more fatalities than official records indicate, according to a recent study published in the journal Nature. This revelation comes as residents across the Southeastern United States continue to search for missing loved ones in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

The researchers estimate that an average tropical storm or hurricane causes between 7,170 and 11,430 premature deaths, a stark contrast to the average of 24 direct deaths per storm documented in government records over more than 50 years.

"We were quite stunned by these findings. If people are surprised by these results, we were right there, too," stated Rachel Young, an environmental economist and postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Berkeley and a coauthor of the study.

The study highlights the broader public health implications of tropical storms, capturing a range of insidious health risks beyond the immediate dangers posed by floodwaters and hurricane-force winds. The findings are intended to help officials anticipate and mitigate these risks in the future.

"Hurricanes and tropical storms have a much greater public health impact than we previously thought. People face elevated risks of dying long after these events," Young added.

Young and her coauthor were particularly surprised by the duration of the increased mortality risk, which extended up to 15 years following a storm. The study analyzed data from all tropical cyclones in the contiguous United States between 1930 and 2015, focusing on monthly state mortality rates for two decades after each of the 501 cyclones within that period.

The researchers estimated the number of excess deaths—deaths likely accelerated by the lingering effects of a storm. The study suggests multiple factors that might contribute to these premature deaths, including heightened physical and mental stress, environmental hazards such as chemical releases from damaged industrial facilities, financial strain limiting healthcare access, constrained government budgets affecting public health initiatives, and the breakdown of social support systems due to displacement.

These indirect ways in which storms can lead to higher mortality rates contrast with official death tolls, which typically account only for immediate fatalities. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the study found that most of the indirect deaths were categorized as "other," which could include sudden infant death syndrome, diabetes, suicide, and other causes. The next most common causes of death were cardiovascular disease and cancer. Overall, excess deaths linked to tropical cyclones comprised between 3.2 and 5.1 percent of all deaths in the continental United States, according to the study.

The research also found disparities in vulnerability. Infants faced the highest risk of early death across different age groups, and Black populations experienced greater risks than white populations, which aligns with existing healthcare disparities in the US. Additionally, Southeastern states, often hit hardest during Atlantic hurricane season, had the highest proportion of cyclone-linked deaths. Last week, Hurricane Helene devastated communities from Florida to Tennessee, with the death toll now exceeding 160 and many more people still unaccounted for.

This research underscores the long-term recovery efforts required following a disaster. "Hopefully, this sheds light on the need to assist people long after the initial days and weeks of the storm," Young commented.

The study also provides some hope, suggesting that states with more frequent storms have lower mortality impacts due to their adaptation measures. This adaptability will be crucial as climate change leads to more intense storms traveling further inland, affecting areas less accustomed to such disasters.

"This is slightly more good news in an otherwise quite gloomy paper. States are able to adapt, and we are seeing this reflected in the data," Young concluded.

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