In this news article, the author ponders the foreign policies that would be pursued in a potential second term of Donald Trump’s presidency. The author acknowledges the difficulty in predicting Trump’s actions due to his egoism, which can lead to unpredictability in his decision-making. However, the author highlights some probable outcomes, such as a reduction in sanctions against Russia, a slowdown in support for Ukraine, and a heightened threat to international treaties and organizations like NATO and the World Trade Organization.
The author argues that Trump’s nationalist approach often overlooks the national interest, as demonstrated by his potential abandonment of Ukraine, which has been crucial for America’s global influence. Additionally, the author suggests that Trump may continue his protectionist stance on trade, withdrawal from Afghanistan, and hostility towards Iran, as these areas saw little deviation from Joe Biden’s approach. However, the most significant policy that could surprise the world is Trump’s potential to foster a détente in US-China relations. Despite Trump’s initial economic grievances with China, the author proposes that if he were respected on trade, he might not be interested in containing China and could remain enigmatic on defending Taiwan.
In conclusion, the article presents the possibility of a Trump-led détente with China as a potential unexpected outcome in his second term. While some uncertainties and contradictions exist in Trump’s worldview, his focus on economic interests and skepticism towards US global commitments may lead to surprising shifts in international relations.